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Hunter's avatar

Fantastic work! The idea of "ecological conditions" is a useful lens through which to view any aberrational price movements. Market structure have changed dramatically, and shareholder constituencies are more important than ever. Companies can use the high-growth vernacular that appeals to Cathie Wood, or the FCF-compounder language that attracts certain investors. Sometimes, the positioning of an equity in the market, gives management broader discretion and less oversight by shareholders provided they maintain that positioning (a high-growth disruptor, "Outsiders"). AI is creating a new ecological condition; companies can position themselves as AI-beneficiaries in a multitude of ways. Shareholders in turn, can graft their own optimism about the future on that general narrative even though it currently lacks specific or tangible business outcomes.

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Andy, The Magic Bakery's avatar

Exactly! You don't need a smoking gun, but it's hard to shake the interpretation that the security doesnt exist to make money for people purchasing it on the open market when a scenario fits the framework. Doesnt mean its about to go down 90%, but at a minimum the people collecting any excess returns of the biz typically wont be outside shareholders

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